The source for this article is the California Institute Capitol Hill Bulletin published by the California Institute for Federal Policy Research:
Two-thirds of Californians say a special election on Governor Jerry Brown’s tax and fee proposal is a good idea, and a majority are generally satisfied with his budget plan. These are among the key findings in a statewide survey released on January 26, 2011 by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with support from The James Irvine Foundation. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 California adult residents interviewed from January 11–18, 2011. PPIC’s State-wide Survey examines the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices.
In Early Reaction to Budget, 58 Percent Satisfied
When read a description of the Governor’s proposed budget, 58 percent of Californians are generally satisfied (29% dissatisfied). Across party lines, there is more satisfaction (64% Democrats, 57% independents, 49% Republicans) than dissatisfaction (26% Democrats, 31% independents, 37% Republicans) among residents. Still, overwhelming majorities (75% adults, 73% likely voters) are at least somewhat concerned about the spending reductions in the Governor’s plan. Brown’s proposed special election on a tax and fee package to prevent further budget cuts is a good idea, according to 67 percent of adults. Majorities agree, regardless of party affiliation (73% Democrats, 64% independents, 55% Republicans). By comparison, just 40 percent of likely voters said in September 2005 that the special election called by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was a good idea, and 50 percent felt that way in the weeks before a 2009 special election called by the Governor and Legislature. A smaller majority—53 percent of adults and 54 percent of likely voters—favor the general plan they would be voting on, which would extend tax and fee increases and divert some revenues from state to local governments.
Strong majorities (71% adults, 73% likely voters) favor the general concept of shifting tax dollars and fees to local governments to take on the responsibility of running certain programs. Most residents are also confident (14% very confident, 49% somewhat confident) that local governments would be able to operate programs currently run by the state, and so are likely voters (18% very confident, 51% somewhat confident).
Brown Approval Rating Falls Short of 50 Percent
So far, Californians approve of the ideas the new governor has advanced more than they approve of the new Governor. Less than half of adults approve of the overall job he is doing so far (41% approve, 19% disapprove, 39% don’t know) or of his handling of the state budget and taxes (41% approve, 27% disapprove, 32% don’t know).
Most adults (55%) disapprove of the new legislature—largely composed of incumbents. Likely voters are still more negative: 68 percent disapprove. The legislature fares even more poorly on its handling of the budget and taxes: 65 percent of adults and 74 percent of likely voters disapprove.
Even though Californians give approval ratings of less than 50 percent to both the new legislature and Governor, a majority of adults—58 percent—say the two will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. By comparison, just 28 percent of all adults and 20 percent of likely voters felt this way in January 2010.
Most Would Pay Higher Taxes to Spare Schools
Most Californians regard the state budget as a big problem (68% adults, 83% likely voters). Solid majorities of adults oppose spending cuts in K–12 education (75%), higher education (63%), and health and human services (60%) to help reduce the state budget deficit. But 70 percent support cuts in prisons and corrections. Californians say they are willing to increase taxes to spare K–12 education (71%), higher education (59%), and health and human services (57%) from budget cuts. Just 17 percent are willing to pay higher taxes to maintain current funding for prisons and corrections.
Most Would Raise Taxes for Corporations
Majorities (60% adults, 55% likely voters) favor raising the state taxes paid by California’s corporations to address the budget deficit, up 13 points among likely voters since last September. Other revenue-raising ideas received far less support: 27 percent of likely voters favor raising state personal income taxes, 34 percent favor raising the state sales tax on all purchases, and 36 percent favor increasing the vehicle license fee.
Californians’ Knowledge Gap
Most Californians’ views about the budget are not based on an understanding of where the money comes from and where it goes. A majority of adults say they have some knowledge (39%) or a lot of knowledge (15%) about how state and local governments spend and raise money.
The Tax System: it Needs Changes but It’s Moderately Fair
As Californians face the prospect of a special election to determine whether to extend temporary tax increases, most (58%) say the state and local tax system is in need of major changes. And 53 percent say they pay more in taxes to state and local governments than they should. Despite these attitudes about their own tax burden, most say the present state and local tax system is at least moderately fair (4% very fair, 53% moderately fair).
More Hopeful, Still Worried about Year Ahead
Californians are feeling better about the direction of the state and their own financial futures, but most are still not feeling good. A majority (54%) continue to say that things in California are going in the wrong direction. However, the share of those who see things going in the right direction—38 percent—is up 22 points since October and the highest percentage since September 2007. Most independents (58%) and a large majority of Republicans (81%) remain pessimistic about the direction of the state. But for the first time since September 2007, Democrats are more likely to say the state is going in the right direction (51%) than in the wrong one (39%).
Turning to economic conditions in California, a majority of adults (56%) expect bad times financially in the next 12 months. But the percentage expecting good times—36 percent—is up 11 points since October. Despite their sunnier view of the economic outlook, most (86%) still believe the state is in a recession, with 48 percent viewing it as a serious recession.
For more information: http://www.ppic.org/ .